In a speech delivered at the Reserve Bank of India, the Managing Director of the IMF sounds quite bullish on India's economic prospects. Excerpts:
...One estimate indicates that the poverty rate fell from 41 percent
in 1992-93 to less than 29 percent in 2000. The reform process has made
steady progress, despite changes in political leadership. Looking
ahead, it appears that the broad path of reform—if not the pace or
details—is firmly established. And success begets success. India is now
more than ever a focus for international investors, who are eager to
take part in a new India.
...Information technology is far from the entire story. A few examples:
India is projected to have the second fastest growing tourism sector of
any country in the world over the next 10 years. Steel production in
India is now among the lowest-cost in the world. Pharmaceutical and
biotech firms are likewise very competitive internationally. And Indian
firms are increasingly carrying out their own R&D. Last year alone,
Indian pharmaceutical companies filed about 200 patents.
Of course, there was a dose of advice on what to do as well.
...First, reducing the borrowing needs of government would help free
resources for private investment, which remains low by regional
standards.
...Second, public investment is also low compared with much of Asia. India's large infrastructure gap acts as an important constraint on growth.
...Third, lower fiscal deficits will improve financial intermediation.
...Quicker cuts in tariffs, combined with a lowering of nontariff barriers
and improvements in the business climate, would allow Indian business
to achieve scale economies and to fully take part in international
production chains.
...India needs to continue to restructure its domestic economy, to allow it to reap the full benefits of globalization.
Quite frankly, this does not sound to me as a bad advice. Interestingly, Mr. de Rato talks about the role manufacturing sector in creating jobs as opposed to Stephan Roach.
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